The Düsseldorf-based IKB bank is expecting a slight increase in global aluminium production in 2010. Following a downturn in the production of primary aluminium in 2009 to only 36.8m tonnes, there are signs of recovery to about 38.5m m tonnes this year. This is the assessment reached by IKB in its report on raw materials prices for June 2010.

Andreas Postler, market analyst at GDA - Gesamtverband der Aluminiumindustrie e.V. in Düsseldorf and member of the Primary Division Statistics Committee (PDSC) of the European Aluminium Association (EAA) confirmed the positive prospects and even expecting global production to reach about 40m tonnes in 2010. According to IKB, China is playing a decisive role in this development: up to April, production there rose by over 50 per cent year-on-year to more than 5.4m tonnes. This rise compensates not only for the further decline in production in Europe and the Americas, but was also primarily responsible for the overall growth worldwide. “On the demand side, aluminium is profiting in the short term above all from the upturn in the production of vehicles in the premium sector, while in the long term the stimuli will generally come from a growing trend to lightweight construction,” explains Andreas Postler. There are also signs of recovery for secondary aluminium, although it is not expected that earlier record levels will be reached just yet.

According to IKB, stocks of primary aluminium at the LME remained stable to a large extent up to the end of May 2010 at just under 4.56m tonnes. Supply thus remains extremely comfortable say the IKB experts. In addition, stocks (including intermediate products and semi-finished products) at the producers have also remained steady at about 2.27m tonnes. There was a slight reduction in the LME stocks of secondary alloys, and these now stand at just under 72,000 tonnes. According to the IKB experts, the production of secondary alloys should benefit from greater amounts of process scrap becoming available.

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Your contact:

Andreas Postler
Markt und Statistik

Gesamtverband der Aluminiumindustrie e.V.
Telefon: + 49 211 47 96 118
Telefax: + 49 211 47 96 408
andreas.postler@aluinfo.de