By 2030 automobile manufactures must raise from 30 to 70 per cent the proportion of lightweight parts in vehicles to compensate for the increase in the weight of vehicles which is caused by electric drives and fuel efficient engine technology. This will create a new growth market for the supplier industry and plant construction: Annual sales of lightweight parts made of high strength steel, aluminium and carbon fibre reinforced plastics could grow from approx. 70 billion to more than 300 billion euros by 2030, depending on developments in the prices of raw materials. These were the findings of a new study by the business consultancy McKinsey & Company.

By 2015 European manufactures are compelled to lower the average CO2 emissions of their vehicle fleets to under 95 grams per kilometre, otherwise they will face penalties of an average of approx. 4000 euros per vehicle. This goal is achievable by optimizing conventional engines, and through measures that make use of lightweight construction. Should the threshold levels be further tightened or in the case of a high proportion of considerably heavier upper and luxury class vehicles, however, these measures will be pushed to their limits. That is why, in addition to the optimization of conventional engines, in future the manufacturers will also be making use of electric drives in order to comply with the threshold levels: “In middle class vehicles even extreme lightweight construction concepts cannot achieve sufficient CO2 reductions on the long term at acceptable prices,” explains the McKinsey partner, Ruth Heuss.

According to the McKinsey study different lightweight construction material mixtures makes sense, depending on the vehicle class: For example, for small and middle class vehicles, in which costs of around 3 euros per kilogram of weight reduction are worthwhile, a conventional mixture with 50 per cent high strength steel is suitable. In the upper class, however, hybrid metal-plastic combinations with a high level of aluminium or magnesium content and a low level of carbon or fibreglass reinforced plastics content will be used, because here, costs of 5 to 14 euros per kilogram of weight reduction are worthwhile. Fibre-reinforced plastics are increasingly being used in the luxury segment. In the yet-small market of carbon fibre composites the McKinsey consultants are estimating growth of 20 per cent by 2030, when the feasible 70 per cent cost reduction to as much as 15 euros per kilogram is reached.