The German aluminium industry has now almost fully recovered from the slump in demand, which was 19 per cent in 2009. Leading experts from the metals industry agree that the physical demand for aluminium should continue to grow this year, by about ten per cent.

According to another estimate made by the experts attending this year’s Metal Breakfast, held at the offices of Trimet Aluminium AG in Essen, the three-month average price will rise as the undersupply of the market grows, probably levelling off at 2700 US dollars a tonne. Compared with other materials, the market is currently significantly undervaluing aluminium. The participants agreed that the planned capacity expansions for production of primary and secondary aluminium will not put a brake on the expected upsurge in prices. The driving forces behind the upswing are the carmakers, a booming solar industry and a stable building sector.

A point of focus was future market developments in the Middle East. The experts are of the opinion that producers there will become intensively involved in downstream processing by 2015 and extend the value chain through to finished aluminium products. For example, the capacity of extrusion plants in the Middle East will grow from today’s 400,000 tonnes a year to over 500,000 tonnes annually, while the capacity of the rolling mills will increase from its current level of 400,000 tonnes a year to 1,400,000 tonnes annually. Parallel to this, primary aluminium production will increase by over 40 per cent by 2015 to some five million tonnes a year; according to the experts, the region’s share of global aluminium production will climb from its present eight per cent to 12 per cent.